Dengue disease prediction using rainfall variation in the Colombo district, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Dengue is a rapidly emerging pandemic disease in many of the tropical countries in the world. Dengue mosquito emergence highly impacts dengue disease transmission in the human community. Since mosquito emergence is affected by environmental factors the study of environmental impact on dengue emergence within a community is crucial. Dengue disease is serologically confirmed in Sri Lanka since 1960 and annually over 50,000 dengue infections are reported all around the country. The highest number of dengue cases are reported in the Colombo District throughout the year. Sri Lanka being a tropical country, the governing and most favorable environmental factor for dengue disease emergence is rainfall. The South- West monsoon and Northeast monsoon bring a seasonal variation to rainfall on the island. The reported dengue cases also show seasonal variation and thus the main aim of this study is to capture the seasonality of dengue disease emergence by quantifying the per capita vector density by means of rainfall variation.