Application of ARIMAX model for forecasting paddy production in Trincomalee district in Sri Lanka

Abstract

In the post-war climes, the government’s mandates focus on reviving one of the paddy production region Trincomalee district in SriLanka to meet the growing demands of the nation. Such a rehabilitation program requires the understanding of how the paddy producing industry has fared along the historical time-lines. This understanding is essential for developing the necessary development plans for the Rice sector. When an ARIMA model includes other time series as input variables, the model is referred to as an ARIMAX model. Pankratz (1991). In this paper, ARIMAX model has been applied to forecast annual paddy production with includes rainfall time series as input variable for both seasons in this district. The validity of the model is verified with various model selection criteria such as Adj R2, minimum of AIC and SBC lowest MAPE values